Why the Raptors’ 2027 Pick Swap Matters More Than You Think
The Los Angeles Clippers may once again get a pick at the top of the draft class without owning their own pick.
In this year’s NBA draft, the Clippers received the 5th pick in the draft via Indiana despite losing their own pick to the Thunder. As for next year’s NBA draft, the Clippers have the swap rights to the Raptors’ first round draft pick, pending the Kawhi Leonard trade.
The Thunder will once again own the Clippers’ pick. The Clippers will then get to choose between owning the Thunders’ pick or the Raptors’ pick. Considering OKC is not expected to take a dip this coming season, it is likely that they will once again be at the top of the NBA and for their pick to land in the 28-30 range. This means that the Clippers will likely walk away with the Raptors’ pick.
Lets operate as if the Kawhi Leonard trade goes through. It has already been reported that Steve Ballmer has been found not guilty of any cap circumvention and that the Clippers are innocent in their contracts with Kawhi Leonard. This means that any sort of punishment they find may go through Kawhi. I am of the belief that Leonard will not get punished, but if he does, a suspension will likely worsen the Raptors’ record, allowing the Clippers to receive a higher pick.
However, the circumstance of the 2027 NBA draft lottery will begin following a new format. If the Raptors finish next season in the play-in and lose, the Clippers receive a lottery pick and a 2.7% chance at the #1 pick. This is not fully out of the question considering Kawhi just had his best season ever and one of his most healthy seasons of the last decade and betting on that to happen two years in a row is a reach. Despite Kawhi’s amazing season, he still reached the play-in in a losing effort and that is exactly what the Clippers need from him next season, coincidentally.
The Clippers’ odds to receive a #1 pick may even end up being higher than that. Since the Wizards received the #1 pick in 2026, they are officially inedible to receive #1 in 2027. Also the Utah Jazz received a top 5 pick back-to-back drafts, meaning they cannot get top 5 in next year’s draft. You can no longer receive a top 3 pick three years in a row.
The Raptors are also definitely not one of the worst teams in the league. The lottery odds for the bottom 3 teams are a 5.4% chance to receive the number 1 pick while the 4th-10th worst teams in the league equally receive an 8.1% chance at #1 with that being the highest percentage possible.
There are many factors in the Clippers favor for their unprotected 2027 pick-swap via Toronto to end up falling at the top of the class, all we can do now is wait for luck to be on our side.